The economic pressure cooker of 2025 has created new challenges for retailers – even during the historically profitable ‘Turkey 5.’ For those who lean into the data during these shifts, the challenges could provide opportunities for a very happy new year. Deidre Drewes, VP, retail activation at Kinesso, and Elizabeth Donovan, SVP, retail and commerce media networks at Acxiom outline retail strategies to elevate the experience of seasonal shoppers
If there is one word to describe the 2025 holiday shopping season, it would be ‘uncertainty.’ In light of economic pressures, promotion fatigue, and rapidly shifting shopping behaviors, predicting holiday sales performance this year is truly a moving target. All that aside, retailers can still win this season by leveraging a data-backed approach to both pricing and personalization. With holiday spending condensed to key promotional periods and media spend under greater scrutiny, leaders must leverage insights, agile campaign timing, and omni-channel coordination to engage high-intent shoppers, deliver measurable results, and capture growth in a marketplace where timing, relevance, and trust are increasingly important.
At IPG Mediabrands, we have a unique vantage point into both retail media networks (RMNs) and buying decisions, allowing us to take a true 360° approach that connects brand strategy, media activation, and data intelligence to help partners turn uncertainty into opportunity. Here, we outline the top five trends and opportunities for retailers and RMNs to anticipate ahead of the 2025 holiday season.
In the wake of continued discounts following persistent inflation, tariff-driven uncertainty, and a volatile consumer landscape, retailers are facing a new Q4 reality: promotion fatigue. What was once a reliable lever to drive conversion has now become a signal of saturation. According to AlixPartners’ 2025 consumer survey of more than 9,000 shoppers, 30% fewer respondents ranked sales and ‘finding the best deal’ as very important compared with last year – a clear indication that consumers are tuning out the noise of nonstop promotions.
Still, for retailers and RMNs, the path forward isn’t about retreat; it’s about refocusing. Despite the shift in sentiment, key seasonal buying moments remain powerful demand drivers. In 2024, Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday posted the strongest year-over-year growth of the holiday season, up 7.4% and 10%, respectively, underscoring that well-calibrated moments of value can still convert when paired with trust and timing.
As 2025’s growth outlook moderates (forecasted at just 1.2% year-over-year), the imperative is clear: resist the reflex to over-discounting. Focus instead on fewer, higher-impact promotional windows that align with historic shopping behavior and emotional resonance, anchoring your message where credibility meets convenience.
Despite widespread promotion fatigue, holiday shoppers continue to prioritize perceived value over static discounting. According to the Simon Kucher 2025 Holiday Shopping Report, consumer expectations for steep percentage discounts have declined for the second consecutive year. Yet, 41.4% of US shoppers are still actively shopping for value to offset price increases – underscoring a key opportunity for retailers and brands to elevate value perception through strategic merchandising at the point of purchase.
This is where both physical and digital bundles, alongside limited-time offers (LTOs), can drive incremental performance. Bundling enables retailers to lift average order value (AOV) while delivering tangible savings –whether through pairing a gaming console with a top title or creating virtual bundles of category-adjacent gifting items. The real unlock lies in the data: leveraging comprehensive basket analysis to identify complementary products that align with shopper intent.
The shift toward mobile-first shopping continues to accelerate. Earlier this year, eMarketer forecasted a 31% year-over-year increase in mobile’s contribution to holiday sales. This surge represents a critical opportunity for retailers to elevate mobile experiences – not just in functionality, but in personalization and media relevance.
AI-driven personalization is proving to be the differentiator. Best Buy offers a compelling model, having launched an enhanced mobile app experience designed around individualized recommendations informed by prior purchases and browsing behavior. For RMNs, this evolution underscores the growing importance of mobile as a high-engagement environment for commerce-enabled media. Mobile is no longer just a browsing channel; it’s a conversion hub where data, personalization, and retail media intersect to drive measurable holiday impact.
As retail leaders, we recognize that December often brings unexpected shopping urgency. In fact, 91% of holiday shoppers admit to last-minute purchases – driven by the perennial need to find that perfect gift or fulfill spontaneous gift exchanges. When time isn't on their side, traditional store visits aren’t always feasible, and that’s where last-mile fulfillment becomes a key strategic advantage.
Leading retailers, such as Ulta, Best Buy, and Costco, are already capitalizing on this opportunity by partnering with platforms including Instacart to deliver local, same-day solutions. Beyond Instacart’s consumer-facing app, Costco and other retailers leverage last-mile services to power same-day delivery for shoppers purchasing directly through Costco.com.
“We see a consistent pattern during the holidays: a rise in small, last-minute orders as people try to finish up meals, wrapping, and gifting. In 2023, $10 to $20 baskets were up to three times more common during Thanksgiving and Christmas compared to the rest of the year – and on Christmas Eve last year, the top trending categories included gift wrap, stockings, and fragrance sets.”
Suzanne Skop, senior director of agency partnerships, Instacart
Despite the rapid rise of e-commerce and delivery-driven convenience, brick-and-mortar retail continues to anchor the holiday economy. In fact, 52% of holiday shoppers cite in-store discovery as their top influence when finding gifts – a reminder that the physical shelf continues to drive inspiration at scale.
Yet, in spite of this proven consumer behavior, in-store retail media remains drastically underrepresented in brand budgets. In 2025, it’s projected to account for only 0.7% of total omnichannel retail media spend. This disconnect highlights a missed opportunity to influence shoppers precisely when they are most engaged – inside the store, in moments of comparison, inspiration, and purchase intent.
As Neil Murphy, SVP of Retail Partnerships at Grocery TV, which operates the largest in-store media network in grocery, explains:
“We’ve worked with over 120 retailers to prove that in-store media, when deployed thoughtfully, benefits brands, retailers, and most importantly, shoppers. Through strategic screen placement, retailers can unlock incremental revenue while still enhancing the shopper experience.”
Categories such as apparel, electronics, and beauty are especially well-positioned to unlock incremental performance by integrating in-store placements within omnichannel retail media strategies.
With economic volatility and changing consumer sentiment shaping the 2025 holiday shopping season, now is the time for retailers and RMNs to take a beat and understand the economic and emotional factors driving purchase decisions. Equally important, retail organizations and media networks should harness their extensive data sets to prioritize elevated experiences and enhanced personalization for holiday shoppers. By supporting basket-building and lifting AOVs, RMNs can position themselves to drive not just conversion but deeper consumer connection, setting the stage for loyalty beyond the season.
