Scenario planning & partnership power: IAB’s Sheryl Goldstein on a pivotal NewFronts

That flexibility is being tested by growing economic pressures, from softening consumer demand to tariff-related disruptions. New IAB research shows 94% of advertising decision-makers are concerned about the impact of tariffs on ad spend, with 57% “extremely concerned”. Goldstein expects the biggest effects to land later in the year: “We might start seeing the impact in Q3”, especially in categories such as auto or small business where shipping delays and cost hikes are already being felt.

Advertisers are dusting off their Covid-era contingency plans and applying them to a new reality. “It’s a worst-case/best-case/in-between mindset,” she says. “If I were on the sales side right now, I’d be working closely with my biggest partners to have flexible packages or a media plan on the backburner ready. Help them scenario plan. Be ready to move fast.”

What to expect from this year’s NewFronts

Despite the volatility, NewFronts is once again sold out – proof, says Goldstein, that appetite for new, future-facing solutions is strong: “People are looking for things that allow for last-minute opportunities, especially given the uncertainty of the economy.”

She points to three dominant themes this year: AI, incrementality and outcomes.

“You’re going to hear a lot about AI,” she says. “And you’re going to hear about incrementality – reaching audiences that are hard to reach in other places, or through a more traditional media plan.”

AI is also making content and contextual marketing much more powerful. “It used to be keyword search – just picking up words on a page – but now you can actually pick up the sentiment of the article,” she explains. “It’s much more sophisticated targeting. So we’re seeing a lot of that move back to content.”

In tough economic conditions, she says, outcomes matter more than ever. “Performance outcomes are huge. When the economy is tough and brands are pulling back, what they care about – especially in a season of uncertainty – is flexibility. They want to know that if something changes, if they can’t get product or need to pull spend for business reasons, the partners they work with will understand and be flexible.”

Supporting publishers, expanding perspectives

Goldstein is also keen to spotlight the work IAB is doing to support news publishers. “We’ve been told by some folks on the buy side that spend in news publications before 2016 was about 20% of overall budgets. Now it’s less than 4%. And many brands have said, ‘not at all.’”

She stresses this pullback applies not just to political or breaking news, but to all categories – travel, lifestyle, business, and more. “It’s upsetting. They’re kind of throwing everything out in one fell swoop,” she says. “We want the buy side to understand that supporting news is not just good for democracy, it’s also good for business outcomes.”

She points out that roughly 20% of the population only consumes news content, meaning advertisers who exclude it are “missing a whole segment of people.”

IAB’s efforts include bringing major publishers on stage, helping them tell their stories and explain the operational pressures they face – from content creation across platforms and formats, to monetization. “They have to create content for streaming, podcasts, big screen, small screen. It’s a lot of pressure. And if ad dollars aren’t going to support it, it’s troubling.”

The shift to digital – and performance pressure

The 2025 Digital Video Ad Spend & Strategy Report, developed by IAB with AdPerceptions and Guideline, shows that digital video has now definitively overtaken linear TV, expected to capture nearly 60% of total video ad spend by 2025 – double what it was just five years ago. In 2024, spend grew 18% to $64bn, with projections of another 14% increase to $72bn in 2025 – two to three times faster than total media growth.

And the spend is starting to align with where consumers actually are. “We’re finally seeing that money is starting to follow the viewership,” she notes. “CTV, digital video – the spend is starting to connect more directly to where audiences are. Especially younger people – they’re not watching linear TV.”

But while digital offers more flexibility, Goldstein acknowledges why some marketers still default to traditional media. “TV is predictable. It’s a one-and-done – they see where it runs, they know what it’s running against. Digital is complex. There are so many options. But it also gives you more opportunity to be creative, to integrate your message, to engage two-way.”

That flexibility will be critical as brands tighten belts. Goldstein says traditional media and social are expected to see the largest budget reductions, while CTV and online video may prove more resilient. The majority of advertisers expect a 6–10% decrease in 2025 ad budgets due to tariff-related pressures.

What are brands doing to adapt? IAB’s research shows 45% are adjusting for financial constraints by reducing spend, 35% are increasing their focus on performance-based channels, and 21% are negotiating for greater flexibility.

Commerce media’s moment

Another rising star is commerce media. “We don’t call it retail media anymore, because it’s so much bigger than that,” she says. “You’ve got banks, airlines, hotels – anyone with first-party data is now getting into the media business.”

Whether through direct offerings or partnerships, more publishers are building shoppable content that leads directly to a commerce-enabling back end. “You end up with a full-funnel experience that’s still performance-driven,” she adds.

Full-funnel, performance-driven solutions, in particular, will dominate this year’s NewFronts, especially those involving creators. “What we’re seeing with creator content is that the funnel becomes a circle,” she says. “You can enter anywhere – at awareness, or even as a loyal brand enthusiast – and still end up at purchase. Because of the trust that creator has built.”

Advice for marketers: plan like a pessimist, act like a partner

Goldstein sees a common thread running through all of this year’s themes: the need for stronger collaboration.

“Any publisher or media company that’s willing to be flexible with their buying partners is going to have a better chance of securing budget,” she says. “I’d already be thinking about how I can help my clients with their scenario planning – what are the options for worst case, best case, and everything in between?”

As advertisers brace for what could be a rocky Q3 and Q4, Goldstein’s advice is clear: “Partner with companies that are in scenario planning with you – so you’re in lockstep, and can execute quickly. That kind of collaboration is going to be essential.”

And despite all the uncertainty, she’s optimistic.

“We got through Covid. We’ll get through this too.”

Stay tuned for The Drum’s coverage and insights from the IAB NewFronts, taking place in New York May 5-8.