TikTok’s 2026 forecast: emotional ROI is replacing impulse buying

As Cassie Taylor, TikTok’s global head of platform and trends marketing, puts it: the story of 2026 isn’t about people rejecting technology – it’s about how they’re choosing to use it.

“This report centers around what technology and AI can’t replace,” she says. “Connection, culture, curiosity. Even going down rabbit holes just because something feels interesting. And also this idea of showing up – being present – even when things feel messy or uncomfortable.”

From coping to participating

One of the most striking shifts TikTok highlights is a move away from passive coping behaviors – quiet quitting, avoidance, running on autopilot – towards something more active.

“In previous years, you saw people stepping back,” Taylor says. “Now, it’s more like, ‘No, we’re going to figure this out together. Even if there isn’t a clear roadmap.’”

That mindset underpins the report’s first trend signal, Reali-Tea – a move away from polished fantasy towards shared reality. On TikTok, that shows up in creators talking openly about work routines, hygiene rituals, career anxiety, aging and everyday trade-offs. For brands, it means relatability is no longer a tone choice – it’s a structural one.

“It’s not about creating an AI avatar or a chatbot and calling it ‘human,’” Taylor says. “It’s about listening. Learning. Reflecting how people actually feel – with empathy and wit.”

What Oreo actually did – and why it worked

That distinction matters when brands try to apply the insight. Oreo, which features in the report, didn’t simply jump on a trend; it let the community shape how the brand showed up.

Rather than treating TikTok as a campaign channel, Oreo evolved its presence into what TikTok describes as a kind of clubhouse. The brand leaned into comment culture, playful speculation and shared jokes – even letting fans fuel rumors about cross-brand “romances” ahead of collaborations.

For the Oreo x Reese’s partnership, the brand didn’t lead with a product reveal. Instead, it played along with a running joke about “merging” with your best friend – allowing the community to write the script in the comments. According to TikTok, that approach helped drive one of Oreo’s strongest-performing posts of the year, increasing shares and engagement because people felt involved rather than targeted .

“That’s what Reali-Tea looks like in practice,” Taylor explains. “You’re not forcing yourself into culture. You’re letting culture pull you in.”

Discovery doesn’t follow a funnel any more

If Reali-Tea is about tone, the second signal – Curiosity Detours – is about behavior. TikTok’s research suggests people don’t move cleanly from awareness to consideration to purchase. Discovery is messy, sideways and often accidental.

“The funnel just isn’t linear any more,” Taylor says. “People start in one place and end up somewhere completely different.”

She gives a personal example: searching TikTok for Italy travel tips and ending up deep in videos about Pope Leo – a journey that makes little sense on paper but perfect sense in practice.

That behavior is now measurable. TikTok’s data shows users frequently arrive with intent and leave with curiosity, discovering new interests, categories and brands along the way.

How brands are using that insight

This is where Moritz Bartsch, TikTok’s head of creative operations, brings the conversation back to execution.

“One mistake we still see is brands treating TikTok as either upper funnel or lower funnel,” he says. “If you do that, you’re missing how people actually behave on the platform.”

Bartsch points to TikTok Market Scope – the analytics tool used to build the report – as a way of visualizing these non-linear journeys. Instead of asking where someone is in a funnel, brands can see how audiences move between discovery, conversation and purchase across paid, organic and creator content.

Duracell is a case in point. By analyzing search behavior, the brand discovered an unexpected overlap between battery searches and K-pop fandoms, where Duracell products were being used to power concert light sticks. What began as a niche insight became a new priority audience – and a growth driver – because the brand could see the connection early and act on it quickly.

“That’s the power of seeing the whole picture,” Bartsch says. “You’re not guessing. You’re responding.”

Emotional ROI replaces impulse

The report’s third signal, Emotional ROI, reflects a similar shift in how people buy. Even as budgets tighten, TikTok’s research suggests people are expanding what they consider “essential” – prioritizing meaning, joy and relevance over price alone.

“Impulse is losing to intention,” Taylor says. “People want to understand why something is worth buying – how it fits into their life, their identity, their community.”

Audible’s example illustrates the point. Rather than pushing recommendations, the brand invited its audience to share five-star book picks in the comments. The result wasn’t just engagement, but trust – with the community effectively validating the product for each other.

“That human spark still matters,” Taylor says. “People might get information from AI. But they come to TikTok for perspective.”

Is all media now commerce media?

Taken together, these shifts lead TikTok to a broader conclusion: the line between media and commerce is effectively gone.

“Brands are always trying to achieve commercial outcomes through media investment,” Bartsch says. “That doesn’t mean every ad is transactional, but it does mean everything connects.”

That thinking shaped how TikTok built the report itself, using the same tools it’s now putting in marketers’ hands.

“We used Market Scope to identify the same kinds of signals brands can see themselves,” Bartsch adds. “The point is to move quickly – from insight to content to action – while the moment still matters.”

The real challenge for marketers

What TikTok’s 2026 outlook ultimately asks of marketers isn’t more content or more automation. It’s better judgment.

“You can generate faster than ever now,” Taylor says. “But the question is, ‘Are you paying attention to what actually resonates?’”

In a year defined by realignment, TikTok’s argument is that instinct – trained by data, but guided by empathy – may be the most valuable capability brands have left.

Commerce media is moving fast. The Drum Awards for Commerce Media are here to recognize the work keeping pace – and setting the standard. Join us in Miami in April as part of The Drum’s year-round Commerce Media program. Learn more and enter.