Yet another black swan event? Maybe just get comfortable being uncomfortable

For the last few years, the black swan population seems to have flourished. From Covid to the cost of living crisis, the threat of global conflict and most recently, to Trump’s tariffs. You’d almost be forgiven for thinking that black swans need a rebrand to reflect their newfound ubiquity.

Last week, the IPA published its latest Bellwether report. The headline that caught the eye was that of the first decline in UK marketing budgets for four years.

And while this clearly doesn’t meet the threshold for a black swan event, it is further evidence of the perpetual disruption that seems to define our world right now. We are living in uncertain times. Or as leadership professor Eli Amdur put it, writing for Forbes recently: “These are troubled times, chaotic times. Turbulent times, dangerous times. Unprecedented times.”

But a disrupted economic landscape doesn’t necessarily mean a universally bleak one. Digging a little deeper into the Bellwether report unearths a more nuanced picture. While it is true that almost a quarter of respondents (24.2%) revised their marketing budgets down in the first quarter, 19.4% actually indicated an increase. And when asked to look further ahead, across the 2025-26 financial year, 18.4% anticipated an increase in total budgets.

So, are we right to be optimistic about the future?

Well, consider these results to be the sanitized version of what could have been.

The fieldwork for this report was undertaken prior to April 2, when Trump announced his tariffs. Imagine for a moment what the report would have looked like if it had taken place within that window.

Put simply, predicting the future right now is nearly impossible. Upslope, downslope, events and sentiment can turn on a dime. So, rather than trying to stick the proverbial jelly to the wall, perhaps we should all get used to the idea of being comfortable with being uncomfortable?

The acronym ‘VUCA’ (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity) springs to mind as a way of explaining the world around us. Originating from the US Army War College in the late 1980s and early 1990s, VUCA was a shortcut for the changing landscape of international security and military operations of the time. The term, inspired by the leadership theories of Warren Bennis and Burt Nanus, emphasized the need for leaders to be adaptable and resilient in complex and uncertain environments. Sounds about right.

It makes sense then that, in recent times, it has gained traction as a way to understand and navigate the complexities of the modern business landscape.

Writing for Harvard Business Review, Nate Bennett and G. James Lemoine explained that you can look at VUCA in two ways. The first is a lazy catchall for “Hey, it’s crazy out there!” – an excuse for not dealing with the problems in front of you.

Or you can use VUCA as a framework.

A way of developing strategies to deal with challenging environments. By breaking VUCA down into four categories, each aligned to the V, U, C and A, you can start to define types of events, their characteristics and ways of dealing with them.

It is by no means a definitive map out of prolonged disruption, but it does remind us that even in the most volatile of markets, gaming your strategy is still the best route forward. We may still feel uncomfortable, but at least we won’t be unprepared.

Gareth Davies is the UK Group CEO of Leagas Delaney, a role he has held since January 2020. He brings a wealth of experience from over a decade at Havas. Prior to Havas, Gareth was the NFL’s marketing director. Get in touch here on LinkedIn.

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