Warc’s latest global forecast shows the tech giants tightening their grip on ad budgets even as trade pressures slow spending elsewhere.
Alphabet, Amazon and Meta dominate
Alphabet (Google’s parent company), Amazon and Meta are on track to capture nearly 55% of global advertising spend outside China this year, according to Warc’s latest Q2 2025 Global Ad Spend Forecast. The three companies are expected to collectively generate $524.4bn in ad revenue this year, with that share set to rise to 56.2% in 2026.
The updated forecast highlights how global ad growth is increasingly concentrated within a small group of digital platforms, even as broader economic uncertainty slows growth across several major sectors.
Warc projects global ad spend will rise 6.2% this year to $1.16tn, slightly lower than its previous forecast from March. Key sectors such as retail and automotive are pulling back amid tariff pressures and supply chain costs, yet the largest digital platforms continue to grow their collective market share.
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Search advertising is forecast to rise 7.4% in 2025 to $248.6bn, accounting for 21.5% of total ad spend. Google remains dominant, expected to capture $213.3bn, or 85.8% of the global search market this year. Warc notes that while AI integrations in search may disrupt revenue models over time, Google’s position remains largely unchallenged in the near term, driven in part by strong adoption among small businesses.
Social media is also set to expand its share, reaching 25.8% of total ad spend in 2025 at $298.3bn. Meta’s ad revenue is forecast to grow 12.6% this year to $142.1bn. Though slower than its 18.4% growth rate in 2024, Meta continues to benefit from product integrations that emphasize AI-powered creative, ad placement and performance optimization, especially for smaller advertisers.
Retail media stands out as the fastest-growing segment. Warc projects retail media spend will rise 14.4% this year to $176.2bn. Amazon remains the category leader, with retail media revenue expected to grow 16.1% to $60.6bn, giving it more than one-third of global retail media spend. That share is projected to increase further in 2026.
Combined, these shifts push digital’s share of global ad spending even higher. Warc estimates that pure-play internet channels, including social, retail media, display, classified and search, accounted for 70.8% of global ad spend in Q1 2025. The category is forecast to grow 9.8% for the full year, reaching $829.2bn.
If current growth rates continue, Warc expects pure-play internet advertising to surpass $1tn globally by 2028, representing nearly 80% of total ad spend.
While digital platforms continue to expand, other channels are under increasing pressure. Global video ad spend is projected to decline 2.6% in 2025 to $183.9bn, with linear TV falling 6.3%. This year will mark the first time that retail media commands a larger share of global ad spend than linear television.
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“The latest downgrade is attributable to a reticence to commit ad budgets across key markets in the second quarter,” said James McDonald, director of data, intelligence and forecasting at Warc. “This cooling is underpinned by tariff trepidation and ebbing business and consumer confidence, prompting advertisers to front-load budgets and reallocate spend geographically, particularly towards Canada, Australia and Europe.”
The tariff effect is also being felt at the sector level. “Trade tensions are forcing major sectors to rethink their ad strategies,” McDonald added. “Automakers are cutting back amid rising costs and a pivot to performance media, while retailers tighten budgets as tariffs squeeze margins.”
Warc’s data points to a broader shift in how advertising growth is being captured. Even as macroeconomic uncertainty, trade tensions and cost pressures weigh on advertisers across sectors, the largest digital platforms are deepening their grip on global ad budgets.
For marketers, the growing concentration presents both opportunities and challenges. Scale, targeting precision and AI-powered optimization remain powerful draws for advertisers. At the same time, continued consolidation raises questions for agencies and brands about diversification, pricing power and long-term media strategies as fewer companies control a larger share of the market.
The platform share story, once seen as a tech trendline, is now shaping the fundamental structure of global advertising.
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