Flatline: Q4 2025 IPA Bellwether sees completely unchanged year-end marketing budgets

Most respondents (57.4%) left budgets completely unchanged, with the remainder perfectly split between those increasing marketing spend and those decreasing it, resulting in that total flatline.

But that 0% doesn’t signal indifference; far from it. “Uncertainty remains,” the report says, citing budget constraints and cost pressures on marketers amid broader economic headwinds from continued geopolitical tensions, continued tariffs from the US and fears of “an AI-fuelled stock market bubble.”

As a result of such concerns and pressures to increase return on investment, only a balance of 1.7% of respondents predict an overall increase in marketing spend for the next financial year, 2026/27. That, the report says, is “one of the weakest preliminary outlooks in the Bellwether survey history, which started at the turn of the millennium.”

The only shoots of optimism can be found in the finer-grained results in particular categories, though even those signs of optimism are muted. The only two categories seeing a balance of marketers revising their spend upwards are PR and events. The balance of marketers increasing investment in PR rose slightly, from 2.5% in Q3 to 3.5% in Q4. As for events, though the balance of marketers increasing investment is still up, that balance fell sharply, from 10.9% to 1.4%.

The picture’s even worse for ‘main media’ categories, which see a “distinctly downward-skewed picture in Q4.” Out-of-home sees the grimmest numbers, with a -15.2% negative balance in Q3 compounded in Q4 with a further -17.6%. Audio saw -10.2% decreases (on top of -13% in Q3); ‘published brands and video’ posted decreases of -6.5% and -5.0% respectively. Only ‘other online’ saw increases (13.2%).

Market research and direct marketing and a miscellaneous category all also saw reductions at -4.0%, -4.3% and -12.8%.

The Bellwether also tracks respondents’ sentiment on their own companies’ financial prospects, unearthing “renewed pessimism” as the balance recorded negative sentiments in line with most results from last year after a rare dash of optimism in Q3. The number in Q4: a negative balance of -19% thinking their financial prospects have improved over the quarter, the worst result in over three years.

Respondents were similarly glum about wider industry prospects, with 41.1% pessimistic about industry-wide financial prospects, and only 11.0% optimistic.

In a statement, report author Maryam Baluch, an economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, encouraged a balanced reading of the results while acknowledging headwinds: “As we move into 2026, the economic climate remains challenging, with marketeers under pressure to deliver ROI as firms scrutinize spending decisions more harshly given the competitive market landscape and subdued macroeconomic outlook… That said, budgetary stasis points to some resilience, with cutbacks avoided. An anticipated easing of inflationary pressures and reduced borrowing costs in 2026 could spring business investment back to life this year.”

Industry reaction to the news includes cautious bullishness from people in the live events area. Paul Samuels, president of Global Partnerships at AEG International, said that events teams will be looking out for expanded collaborative opportunities: “New restrictions on advertising media are pushing marketers to consider other avenues to capture audiences’ attention and events are perhaps seen as an appealing alternative, as they provide more touchpoints over a longer period… We’re experiencing an influx of interest from marketers who want to use partnerships to connect with highly engaged fan communities across multiple channels, using their budgets to strengthen awareness of what their brand stands for and become associated with some of fans’ most memorable experiences.”

As for out-of-home – one of the (many) channels seeing reductions – David Wellard, managing director of Zoom Media, says that the numbers indicate that evolution is needed, calling the decline in spend “a symptom of long-standing challenges around measurement and accountability.”

“OOH, and particularly DOOH, remains a powerhouse of audience reach at scale in the real world,” Wellard says. “The issue we are currently facing is the struggle to clearly link OOH investment to tangible outcomes, which inevitably puts pressure on budgets during periods of scrutiny. The solution should not be to strip spend away from the channel, but rather to better evolve how it’s planned, targeted and measured. When DOOH campaigns are delivered to the right audience, at the right time and with robust measurement in place to demonstrate impact, brands can once again see the massive value it can deliver.”

For Phil Acton, UK country manager at Adform, “there was always going to be a bit of wobble in Q4.” As such, he says, it’s worth celebrating that “marketing budgets have largely held the line.”

“This resilience is important and shows that brands have learned the lesson that cutting spend in a downturn does not protect business health,” says Acton. “Meanwhile, the 13.2% increase in ‘other online’ budgets shows that brands aren’t retreating, but prioritizing investment in channels where they can prove ROI.”