Speaking at The Drum’s Predictions, behavioral scientist Sian Conway-Wood said 2026 will reward brands that reduce friction rather than add noise. With attention stretched thin, she argued, understanding how consumers actually decide gives brands a clearer path to growth.
At The Drum Predictions, Sian Conway-Wood opened her session with a reminder that, despite constant talk of disruption, human behavior remains remarkably stable.
“Humans haven’t really changed very much in many, many years,” she told the audience. “We are still the habit-driven, risk-reducing, loss-averse mammals that we have always been.”
For marketers, she suggested that consistency should be reassuring. Even as economic pressure, technology and culture shift around consumers, the way people respond to uncertainty follows familiar patterns. The opportunity for brands lies in recognizing those patterns rather than trying to fight them.
“At the point of checkout and the point of browsing and the point of consuming advertising media, we don’t suddenly become enlightened, higher beings. If anything, we go backwards and become a bit more primitive.”
Heading into 2026, Conway-Wood described consumers as operating in a challenging financial environment that is shaping everyday decisions. “They are worse off than they were a year ago. That shows up in how people are spending and how cautious they are.”
Consumers are prioritizing, cutting back on non-essentials, trading down in some categories and sticking more closely to brands they already know. For premium brands in particular, Conway-Wood said the issue is not simply price sensitivity, but mental bandwidth.
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Many briefs, she noted, still focus on the idea of an “attention economy.” She sees that as a misread. “The idea of the attention economy assumes there is ample attention from everybody, readily available at all times. That’s not actually true.”
Instead, Conway-Wood encouraged marketers to think in terms of what she calls “cognitive slack,” the mental space people have available to browse, compare and consider new options. When that slack is limited, curiosity drops and default behavior takes over.
“When people are constantly doing mental arithmetic about money or time, they don’t have the brain space to explore in the same way.”
In those moments, creativity alone is not enough. “Our creativity cannot overcome people’s cognitive overload,” she said, because it attempts to reason with consumers who are operating in a more instinctive mindset.
“Instead of asking, ‘How do we cut through?’, ask, ‘Who are we best placed to reach right now?’”
That led her to defend a tool many marketers have been quick to dismiss. “I’m going to say something that’s going to upset LinkedIn,” she said, before making the case for demographics. Not as a way to predict taste or identity, but as a way to understand constraints.
“Household makeup, housing costs, income stability, dependents, commute. That tells you how much cognitive slack people have and how receptive they are going to be.”
Conway-Wood also pointed to present bias as a defining feature of consumer behavior in 2026. With uncertainty lingering and little sense of a clear improvement ahead, consumers are favouring immediate reassurance over long-term promises.
“They want instant payoff. They’re not looking for abstract rewards that might come later.”
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In that environment, brand plays a very practical role. “Brand is how consumers outsource decision-making,” she said. Familiar brands reduce effort, reduce risk and help people move forward with confidence. “Certainty will beat excitement this year.”
That does not mean cultural relevance or trend participation no longer matter. But Conway-Wood stressed the need for discipline. “If cultural participation is part of your strategy, you need depth as well as agility.”
Speed without understanding audience boundaries risks small signals that undermine trust. “Trust is not a renewable resource in this environment.”
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Loyalty, she added, will increasingly be tied to identity. Strong brands fit naturally into how people see themselves. “People like me use this product.” When that connection is strong, walking away feels harder, even when spending tightens.
Conway-Wood closed by reiterating what success looks like in 2026. The goal is not to fight harder for attention, but to make participation feel easier.
“The attention economy tells us to fight harder for attention. Behavioral science tells us to respect human limits.”
For brands that do, the outlook is far from pessimistic. Consumers may be more selective, but they are also more receptive to brands that simplify choices, reduce friction and offer reassurance rather than noise.
In 2026, Conway-Wood suggested, the brands that win will not be the loudest ones. They will be the ones that make decisions easier and feel worth trusting.